Traffic modelling

Introduction 

The Ewell Village Project has used transport modelling to assess the impact to traffic flows of the various proposals in the centre of the village.

The modelling uses Surrey County Council’s strategic transport model to observe, understand, and make predictions about travel and transport across the county.  The model includes the following modes of transport and associated estimates in terms of number of trips: cars, light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles, and bus.

The base model is built using data that includes traffic count data, mobile phone data, and national travel surveys.  The model makes predictions based on the proposed changes to the village; it doesn’t take account of cultural or behavioural changes that can’t be quantified.

As a result, the modelling reflects a worst-case scenario, which could be mitigated by people choosing to leave their cars at home whenever they can and using alternative ways of getting around.

Modelling Method

Prior to the community consultation in June/July 2023, all proposals were subject to traffic modelling; the map below shows the predicted flows for the main streets in the village for each of the proposals, compared against the current (base) flow.

To observe the possible impact of the proposals, the traffic flows predicted by the model have been compared to the current (base) situation; this has been done for the morning peak hour (8am-9am) on a typical weekday, for a daytime period between the morning and evening peak hours (based on an average hour between 10am-4pm), and the evening peak hour (5pm-6pm).

Summary of results

Please see maps to accompany each option in the documents at the bottom of this page. 

Option A: High Street closed to all traffic except buses between the junctions with Reigate Road and Cheam Road

• Decrease in two-way traffic along the High Street of over 1,000 vehicles in the AM peak hour and close to 950 vehicles in PM peak hour. Inter-peak reduction of around 800 vehicles due to closure.  
• Decrease in traffic along B2200 London Road in AM peak and inter-peak hours of approximately 100 vehicles in each direction between Spring Street and Church Street junctions. 
• Decrease in two-way traffic along B2200 High Street (between junctions with Church Street and Cheam Road) of approximately 550 vehicles in AM peak hour and inter peak hour and over 700 vehicles in the PM peak hour.
• Increase in two-way traffic along the A24 Ewell Bypass, between Reigate Rd roundabout and London Road signals of up to 350 vehicles in the AM peak hour, and up to 200 vehicles in the PM peak hour.
• Increase in two-way traffic along the B2200 Cheam Road of around 450 vehicles in AM peak hour, and 170 vehicles in the PM peak hour.

Option B: High Street closed to all traffic between the junctions with Reigate Road and Cheam Road

• Decrease in two-way traffic along the High Street of over 1,000 vehicles in the AM peak hour and close to 950 vehicles in PM peak hour. Inter-peak reduction of around 800 vehicles due to closure.  
• Decrease in southbound traffic along B2200 London Road of approximately 200 vehicles in AM inter-peak hours (between the junctions with Spring Street and Church Street). 
• Reduction in two-way traffic along B2200 High Street (between the junctions with Church Street and Cheam Road) of approximately 500 vehicles in AM peak and inter peak hours and over 700 vehicles in the PM peak hour.
• Increase in two-way traffic along the A24 Ewell Bypass, between Reigate Road roundabout and London Road signals of approximately 350 vehicles in the AM peak and inter-peak hours and 200 vehicles in the PM peak hour.
• Increase in two-way traffic along the B2200 Cheam Road of around 450 vehicles in AM peak hour, 270 vehicles in the inter-peak and 170 vehicles in the PM peak hour.  

Option C: One-way traffic southbound along the High Street between Cheam Road and Reigate Road alongside the closure of the High Street between West Street and Cheam Road

• A two-way reduction of nearly 700 vehicles travelling along the High Street in the AM peak hour, 600 vehicles in the inter-peak hour and 840 vehicles in the PM peak hour.
• Decrease in two-way traffic along Cheam Road of 380 to 400 vehicles in the inter-peak and PM peak hours.
• Increase in two-way traffic volumes along the A24 Ewell Bypass (between the junctions with Cheam Road and London Road) of approximately 1,100 vehicles in the AM peak hour,  and 1,400 vehicles in the inter-peak PM peak hours.
• Reduction in two-way traffic along B2200 High Street (between the junctions with Church Street and Cheam Road) of approximately 1,500 vehicles in AM peak and inter peak hours and over 700 vehicles in the PM peak hour.
• Increase in two-way traffic along London Road (between the junctions with Kingston Road and A24) of approximately 250 vehicles in the AM peak hour, 230 in the inter-peak and 590 in the PM peak hour.